After today, there are no more picks to be made.
There are no more Iowa games to cover.
I am Tom Hanks at the end of “Castaway.”
National championship game: No. 1 Purdue (+6.5) over No. 1 UConn
I vowed that I would ride the Huskies until the wheels fell off, that I would back UConn under Dan Hurley until they failed to cover an NCAA Tournament game (11-0).
Then, the books slapped their biggest Huskies tax yet, offering a spread that is about twice as high as it should be.
You understand why. All action would back the defending champs if the line was much smaller. UConn is undoubtedly the best team in the country, but there were two teams on its level this season. Houston’s season was cut short because of an injury to Jamal Shead in the Sweet 16. Purdue made it to the title game with the sport’s best inside-out combination, capable of feeding the country’s best player (7-foot-4 Zach Edey) or watching him kick out to the best perimeter shooters in the nation.
The Boilermakers demonstrated the ability to withstand an elite, physical defense in their Elite Eight win over Tennessee. They held the nation’s fifth-ranked offense (Gonzaga) to 17 points below its season-average in the Sweet 16. They have something even more important in their favor — they only need to be better for one night.
Since 1983, national title game underdogs of 6.5-points or more are 4-4 outright, giving value to a Purdue moneyline (+220) play.
A less-equipped Alabama team played UConn to a draw for roughly 29 minutes in the semifinals. But the Tide made the mistake of playing too fast — decreasing its margin for error with increased possessions — with its subpar defense allowing far too many open looks.
Purdue is built differently. It will play to its pace. It will take whatever the defense offers. It won’t be bullied inside. It is a far greater threat than the books would have you believe.
This season: 29-31
2011-23 record: 349-308-12
