The Buccaneers open the season against the reigning NFC North champions, the Minnesota Vikings. Though both teams won their divisions last season, but their crowns were made of fool’s gold as both were bounced from the playoffs in the Wild Card round. Likely in response to their early postseason exits, both teams retooled the more vulnerable aspects of their teams and will test them first on each other.
The Bucs’ offense in 2022 was stale and predictable, predicated on outdated concepts and the notion that Tampa Bay’s talent could simply overcome. This delusion cost former offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich his job, to be replaced by former Seahawks quarterbacks coach Dave Canales. Tampa Bay also has a new quarterback in Baker Mayfield, who may be a decent fit for Canales’ wide-zone, bootleg action offense.
The Vikings similarly replaced the head of their weakest area: defense. Minnesota hired former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores, who is renowned for his aggression with blitzes and putting physical defenses on the field.
Both teams enter 2023 with the other side of the ball mostly intact. Todd Bowles remains one of the better defensive coaches in the NFL and has most of his starters back. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell returns with QB Kirk Cousins and arguably the best wide receiver in football, Justin Jefferson.
Though Week 1 is not always indicative of how the season will go for a team (see: Bucs defeating the Cowboys in Week 1 last year), the battles within the game should help illuminate how both teams will operate generally this year.
Here are three matchups to watch during the Bucs’ Week 1 opener against the Vikings:
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Tampa’s offensive line took a sizable step backward in 2022 and was largely retooled this offseason, with just one starter, Robert Hainsey, returning to his same position. They face a defensive playcaller in Brian Flores who is as aggressive as anyone dialing up blitzes in the NFL. In 2020 and 2021, Flores’ defenses ranked second in blitz rate, according to SB Nation’s Matt Anderson.
This will be a major test with major consequences for Tampa Bay’s offensive line. It’s no secret that Baker Mayfield struggles when pressured. Since entering the league in 2018, Mayfield has completed 45.8% of his passes with a 4.4% interception rate when pressured per Pro Football Focus. These stats represent a marked drop off in his effectiveness when he doesn’t face pressure, where he completes 66.1% of his passes while throwing interceptions on just 2.4% of his attempts.
Tampa Bay took major gambles moving Tristan Wirfs to left tackle, trusting Luke Goedeke with playing right tackle and replacing Shaq Mason with rookie Cody Mauch. All of these changes could wreak havoc on the line’s communication and chemistry, which in turn could spell doom for Baker Mayfield.
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Last year, the Vikings’ offense boiled down to one idea: give Justin Jefferson the football. It appeared to work, as the Vikings had the seventh-ranked offense with Jefferson leading all NFL receivers with 128 catches for 1809 yards.
The Vikings help maximize Jefferson’s effectiveness by moving him all over the formation. He played 69.4% of his receiving snaps from a wide formation and the other 29.6% from the slot.
Because of this flexibility, the Bucs cannot simply expect one corner to defend Jefferson throughout the game. Starters Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean typically play outside the hashes, and the Bucs are starting undrafted rookie Christian Izien at the nickel position.
Expecting Izien to cover Jefferson for nearly a third of his snaps is a recipe for disaster. Todd Bowles may have to bracket Jefferson with multiple defenders and put faith in his remaining defensive backs to cover Minnesota’s remaining skill players.
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Coming off a torn ACL, Chris Godwin got off to a slow start last year but quietly ended the season with the sixth-most receptions of any NFL receiver. More than a year removed from knee surgery, Godwin should be back to his old self and in a more dynamic, player-friendly offense could become the focal point of Tampa Bay’s pass attack.
As Minnesota’s most experienced and accomplished cornerback, in the slot or otherwise, Byron Murphy will no doubt line up against Godwin throughout the game. With Brian Flores in charge, Murphy could find himself taking on Godwin in man coverage.
This favors Godwin as Murphy has never forced a quarterback rating lower than 100 when playing man coverage, whereas Godwin had at least a 100 rating in man coverage in two of his last three seasons. This matchup will be an intriguing gauge of Godwin’s physical state and Murphy’s adaptation to Flores’ system.
