The Buccaneers have lost six of their last seven games, but the home stretch looks considerably easier than the road behind, starting with a home game against the Carolina Panthers. With just one this season, the Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league and have already moved on from head coach Frank Reich. That does not mean the Bucs are assured victory, as they are far from flawless themselves.
Few would argue that the Panthers have one of the least talented rosters in the NFL, particularly on offense. 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young has looked nothing like the top pick of the draft, and the rest of the offense has done next to nothing to help.
By most metrics, the Bucs are the superior team, but they have struggled with consistency all season. Even head coach Todd Bowles appears baffled how baffling and pervasive the team’s mistakes have been (via Fox Sports’ Greg Auman):
Todd Bowles acknowledges mistakes keep happening, but says they’re happening from different people in different situations each week. “It shouldn’t be. It’s things we’ve done every day, we’ve done right hundreds of times, and at a certain point in time, it doesn’t get done.”
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) November 27, 2023
The self-inflicted wounds guarantee that every Bucs game will, at minimum, be interesting. Carolina is flawed enough that Tampa Bay has a better-than-average chance of getting back into the win column.
Here are three keys to victory for the Bucs in their home game against the Panthers:
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By a measure of total yards, the Panthers have the sixth-best defense in the NFL, but they have the fourth-worst scoring defense. A major contributor to Carolina’s porous scoring defense is their inability to stop anything in the red zone. The Panthers’ defense is allowing 72.2% of red zone attempts to end up in the end zone, second worst in the NFL.
The Bucs offense isn’t much better in the red zone, converting touchdowns on just 45.2% of attempts, sixth-worst in the league. Baker Mayfield and the offense cannot afford to waste any chances near the goal line, not with how the Panthers are able to defend the rest of the field.
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Since Todd Bowles took over the Bucs defense in 2019, it has routinely been one of the best in the league, at least until this year. The Bucs are currently eighth-worst in yards allowed and sixth-worst in defensive success rate.
A heavy driver of their defensive problems is Tampa Bay’s inability to stop offenses on third down. They are currently allowing 44.5% of third-down conversion attempts, the fourth-worst in the NFL.
In addition to their newfound penchant for allowing big plays, the Bucs defense simply isn’t getting off the field. The best way to get the defense back on track is to change their fortunes on third down.
(Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
The most vulnerable aspect of Carolina’s defense is their run defense, which is allowing 4.2 yards per carry and 1,374 rush yards in total along with a league-worst 18 touchdowns. The Bucs have the worst run game in the NFL this season, but they showed signs of improvement last week against Indianapolis where they averaged 6.6 yards per carry for 125 yards.
A real (if underappreciated) reason to keep the ball on the ground is Baker Mayfield’s recent penchant for putting the ball in harm’s way. He has six turnover-worthy plays in the past three games according to Pro Football Focus. The Bucs have been lucky that several of his would-be interceptions have been dropped, but they may not want to push that luck.
