Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
If Trevor Lawrence clears concussion protocol, the Bucs defense will have its hands full. Without pressure, Lawrence is nothing short of surgical, completing 71.8% of his throws for a 7.4 yard per attempt average while throwing turnover-worthy plays just 1.8% of the time per PFF. Under pressure, Lawrence all but collapses. His completion rate and yards per attempt drop to 45.5% and 6.2 while his turnover-worthy play rate jumps to 7.7%.
The Bucs have not had consistent success at getting pressure from their pass rush this year. They have just 40 team sacks despite facing the seventh-most pass attempts and blitzing second-most (39.2%) in the NFL per FTN. However, blitzing is better than nothing against Lawrence, who averages 55% pass completion, 6.8 yards per attempt and a 4.1% turnover-worthy play rate against the blitz.
Tampa Bay’s other option is to simply put their best four-man configuration on the field on passing downs. When Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, Shaq Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka are the four players rushing the passer, they rank third in pressure rate and second in sack rate according to Arjun Menon:
Best 4 man pass rushing combos for each team this season by pressure rate (minimum 14 snaps rushing the passer together). Cowboys NASCAR package still reigns supreme pic.twitter.com/fVmfkP1qUi
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) December 21, 2023
While Todd Bowles has always been a blitz-heavy playcaller, letting this configuration get a little more work on Trevor Lawrence could yield a little more success than the Bucs have been having overall this season.
