There is a nearly 40% chance that a slew of magnitude 3.0 earthquake aftershocks could occur within the next week, experts say.
The 4.8 magnitude quake that rattled the New York metro area Friday came as a shock to residents when it hit near Lebanon, NJ — about 50 miles from New York City — about 10:30 a.m., and now locals face a series of potential aftershocks, or smaller earthquakes that occur within days or months of a bigger one.
The United States Geological Survey estimates that there is a 38% chance of experiencing up to 10 aftershocks of 3.0 magnitude in the region within the next week. There is a 8% chance for up to one magnitude 4.0 and a 1% chance of a magnitude 5.0, according to its website.
There is a 46% chance of a 3.0 magnitude aftershock to hit within a month.
At least 10 more minor aftershocks have already happened in areas near the epicenter of Friday’s quake, including a 2.0-magnitude one in Bedminster, NJ, around 1 p.m., the USGS said.
Christine Goulet, the director of the USGS Earthquake Science Center, told The Post that it’s “not a huge concern for large aftershocks.
“The earth is not a static place,” she said. “The Earth is constantly reacting to movements across the plates.”
But she still encouraged those in any quake zone to prepare to “drop, cover, and hold on” if an aftershock or another earthquake occurs.
“Previously we’ve only seen earthquakes of magnitude 2, which is 100 times less severe than this one,” said Borys Hayda, managing principal at the structural engineering firm DeSimone Consulting Engineers, to The Post on Friday.
“It’s a significant earthquake, especially for this region,” he said of Friday’s temblor.
The earthquake was the strongest to originate around the New York area since 1884.
It was felt so far around — from Delaware to Massachusetts — because of the nature of the Earth’s rock in the region, said USGS seismologist Paul Earle.
“Earthquakes on the East Coast are felt four to five times further than a similar-strength quake on the West Coast,” Earle said. “The rock is harder, and seismic waves travel further before they attenuate, so more people will feel it than if it was a similar earthquake in California.”
Dr. Shannon Graham, assistant physics professor at The College of New Jersey, told The Post that Friday’s quake was likely the result of stored-up stress in the Earth’s crust along “ancient plate boundaries,” which formed hundreds of millions ago when the African and North American land masses combined and then broke apart.
“Think of it like bending a stick. You’re storing energy in the center of the stick, and once your strength overcomes it, it snaps,” she said. “That’s what happens in the Earth. You pick a zone of weakness, which is where slip will occur along rocks.”
Graham said an earthquake with the potential to cause significant damage on the East Coast is “not impossible, but unlikely.”
Residents in a NewarkNJ, building had to evacuate after the quake causes structural damage to the home.
