Table of Contents
After defeating the Rockets, 116-107, on the road, the Boston Celtics will wrap up the second leg of a back-to-back against the Mavericks on Monday night.
Dallas has had a more extensive break since last playing Wednesday.
The NBA canceled the Mavericks’ scheduled game Friday against Golden State due to the shocking and sudden death of Warriors assistant Dejan Milojevic.
Although it’s entirely debatable whether the extra rest will lead to some rust for the Mavericks, the oddsmakers are projecting a high-scoring affair, given the opening total of 239.5 points.
In this preview, I’ll share why bettors should be cautious of such a high total involving the Celtics.
Celtics analysis
Generally, when you think about the Celtics, the first thing that comes to mind is their offensive prowess.
After all, they’re known for leading the league in 3-point attempts (42.7 per game) and 3-point field goals (16.2).
Boston’s 3-point shooting can be polarizing, making its defense somewhat undervalued. It now ranks second in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.8 points per 100 possessions.
Moreover, according to NBA.com, Boston ranks third in contested shots, averaging 47.9 per game.
Thus, it’s no surprise the Celtics’ defense ranks sixth in opponent 3-point shooting at 35%. Over their past three games, that number is down to a league-best 25%.
Boston recently suffered its first defeat at home, and I think that loss is still fresh enough in its mind.
While no head coach wants his team to lose, it offers Joe Mazzulla a teachable moment to convince his players that they still have some work to do to improve.
Mavericks analysis
Like the Celtics, the Mavericks have gone all in on this 3-point strategy, ranking second in field goals (15.1 per game) and attempts (41.1 per game).
However, the similarities between the two teams might lead to a lower-scoring game than initially expected. For example, Celtics players are better positioned to know how to thwart the Mavericks because the playing style will be similar to what they face in practice.
Betting on the NBA?
The flip side to being a perimeter-dominant team is that you’ll have fewer trips to the free-throw line. Last season, the Mavericks ranked 11th in free throws per game, but now they’re down to 17th in the league.
If you’re betting an under, the last thing you want to see is the game clock turned off.
The NBA is often described as a make-or-miss league. However, given these high totals, sometimes you only need one quarter where both teams run a little cold to keep a game under the total.
Celtics vs. Mavericks prediction
These high totals in Celtics’ games haven’t worked out for over bettors this season.
According to our Action Labs database, the total is 5-1 to under when it opens at 236 points or higher.
Moreover, the Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis, who plays a vital role in their floor spacing. Porzingis knocked down six 3-pointers en route to a 32-point performance against the Rockets.
While Al Horford is a capable backup, his 11% usage rate is the lowest of his career.
Betting on the NBA?
Lastly, according to GimmetheDog.com, in games where Porzingis was ruled out this season and the total was 236 points or higher, the under is a perfect 3-0.
After running the numbers, my model projects a total closer to 233 points.
At FanDuel, you can play the total under 240.
Pick: Under 240 points (-110 at FanDuel) or better
