The Braves announced Saturday morning what, unfortunately, was expected. Spencer Strider had undergone elbow surgery and was the latest top starter lost for the season.
The wild card as the Mets try to attain a wild card — or more — is just how much deterioration every team endures when it comes to its staff. If 1968 was the Year of the Pitcher, this season is sadly projecting as the Year of the Pitcher Injury. Which is really something considering just how many pitching injuries there have been in recent seasons.
But — just to use one example — 20 pitchers received Cy Young award votes last season.
Strider joined Baltimore closer Felix Bautista in needing elbow surgery and being lost for the year. Gerrit Cole, Kodai Senga and Kyle Bradish have yet to pitch this season due to arm injuries.
Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman, who had shoulder fatigue in spring, has looked like a poor imitation of himself.
It feels as if every team is going to have to navigate without top pitchers this year. So when I asked Carlos Mendoza if he had mulled the implications on the NL East race now that the Braves know for sure they will not have Strider, the Mets manager said, “Yes and no. It is a big loss for them. But we have seen them up close. They are too good of a team not to [keep playing at a high level].”
The Braves won 104 games last season, though their ace, Max Fried, had three IL stints and was limited to 77 ²/₃ innings. Atlanta has a culture of winning, having taken the NL East the last five years and also having captured the 2021 World Series. And it has the scariest 1-to-9 offense in the majors.
The Mets, operating without their ace Senga, are still searching for a 2024 identity. David Stearns had invested in trying to bulk up the Mets’ depth and defense. They already are being depth tested, tying the Astros and Dodgers by using an MLB-high 32 players. But the defense has not shown itself.
The Mets lost, 11-7, to the Royals on Saturday because, after two stellar starts, Sean Manaea just was not sharp. But neither was the Mets defense, which is too familiar, since the team began the game as the majors’ worst by Defensive Runs Saved.
Within a three-batter span when Kansas City broke a 4-4 tie in the fourth, the Mets had two balls hit an outfielder’s glove. Starling Marte dropped a ball in right for a three-base error. Brandon Nimmo, making his second start in center, volleyballed a Salvador Perez drive over the wall, turning a double into a two-run homer.
And then there were three more stolen bases to make opponents 24-for-24 against the Mets this year.
The Mets will try to win the rubber game Sunday against the Royals behind Jose Butto, who is filling in for the injured Tylor Megill, who had stepped in for Senga. Mendoza said that Senga extended to throws of 120 feet and there was hope he might get on a mound next week. But once he has a few mound sessions, Senga still will need to replicate a six-week spring training. And the Mets have been slow-playing the righty because shoulder injuries are so tricky and worrisome.
On the 60-day IL, Senga cannot return before May 27, and privately the Mets have consistently believed mid-June is a more hopeful timetable.
Even without Senga, the Mets already had used 19 pitchers, second in the majors to the Astros’ 20. And if you want to appreciate just what a churn there is going to be in the majors this year, then know that Michael Tonkin, who pitched poorly in two Mets’ extra-inning losses before being designated for assignment, was signed by the Twins, gave up two runs in two innings in his debut and was DFA’d again. Yohan Ramirez, who the league deemed was throwing at Milwaukee’s Rhys Hoskins, and had an 11.81 ERA in three Mets appearances before being designated and traded to the Orioles, was activated to the big league Baltimore roster on Saturday.
If I were going to go full betting app here, I would establish the over/under for teams in which Julio Teheran makes at least one emergency start this year at 3 ¹/₂, with one down already with the Mets.
“We have conversations every day with that in mind,” Mendoza said about concerns on how to deploy pitching to make sure there is enough for the 1,450-ish innings needed overall. “Every day you wonder about the stress on pitchers and the pitch count and it is all worked into the decision making, especially with so many injuries nowadays.”
The Mets believe they have pitching answers for the long season with Senga, Megill and David Peterson on trajectories to return from injuries and a few near-ready prospects, notably the intriguing Christian Scott.
But to elevate pitching that has generally been good so far, the Mets need a lot more offense from Francisco Lindor (NL-worst .103 batting average) and a lot better defense, especially when it comes to thwarting running games. Because it is obvious now that this is going to be the Year of the Pitching Injury and, thus, every staff is going to need all the supplementary help possible.
