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Though spring training statistics seemingly have about as much meaning as getting stock tips from a monkey, sometimes there are performances that are too promising to ignore.
For example: Logan Webb had a 0.55 ERA with a 22-2 strikeout-walk rate, 0.53 WHIP and .119 opponents average over 17 spring innings in 2021. He followed that by going 11-3 with 3.30 ERA and 9.6 strikeouts per nine.
The stats from the exhibition season will not add points to your fantasy roster, but Roto Rage believes these arms are worth monitoring to see if their spring success turns into a gain for your fantasy squad.
Jordan Hicks is mostly known as the oft-injured former Cardinals (and Blue Jays) reliever who had a fastball that averages 100 mph. Though he has made just eight career starts, the flame-thrower signed with the Giants and has been converted into a starter.
Over five spring appearances (17 innings), Hicks maintained a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while striking out 14.8 per nine innings (41.2 percent of the batters he faced) and limited opponents to a .167 average. He also had an absurd swinging strike rate (28.1 percent).
Hicks allowed just one earned run over his last three exhibition starts (12 ²/₃ innings) while striking out 22 and walking six. In his last spring start, he pitched five no-hit innings and struck out 10. The craziest stat from that outing: 20 swinging strikes on 72 pitches (27.8 percent).
Obviously this is a small sample size, but you would have to be insane to ignore those numbers — even with his 11.8 percent walk rate and lower velocity.
Should you be concerned about Hicks, who is available in more than 85 percent of ESPN leagues, not reaching triple-digits with every pitch? Not at all. He has been relying more on his sinker and reportedly spent the spring working with Webb, who finished second in Cy Young voting in 2023. Fantasy owners can only hope the decreased velocity will help with his control and bring his walk rate down.
Topping out at 105 mph may have previously been Hicks’ calling card, but he and the Giants are changing that. These alterations may be for the better, and the 27-year-old should be on your radar.
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Jack Flaherty (9.9 percent rostered), another former Cardinal, finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2019 and has been trying to rediscover that magic ever since. He’s gone a disappointing 23-15 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.398 WHIP since 2019.
Over six spring appearances with the Tigers, Flaherty had a 2.95 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a 15.3 percent swinging strike rate over 17 ¹/₃ innings. He struck out 26, walked four and limited opponents to a .212 average. In his final start of the exhibition season, he struck out eight over 4 ²/₃ innings and had a 15 percent swinging strike rate. He didn’t issue a free pass over his last three starts (13 ²/₃ innings) and, even more importantly, his velocity was up.
Roto Rage believes if Flaherty can sustain his velocity and limit walks, something he did in 2019 (2.5 walks per nine), he could be a great find for the 2024 season.
Other hurlers to keep on your watch list after strong spring performances include Detroit’s Casey Mize (5.5 percent owned), Arizona’s Ryne Nelson (1 percent) and the Mets’ Luis Severino (15.9 percent), who finished the spring with a 1.29 ERA, 1.9 percent walk rate and .176 opponents’ average.
Big hits
Jose Berrios SP, Blue Jays
Allowed two runs on six hits over six innings, and picked up his first win of the season while striking out six and issuing only one free pass.
Adley Rutschman C, Orioles
Was 2-for-4 with two RBIs and three runs scored Thursday, and became the first to reach base safely in his first eight Opening Day plate appearances since Joe Lahoud (1968-72), according to MLB.
Corbin Burnes SP, Orioles
Allowed one run (a solo homer to Mike Trout) while striking out 11 and walking none in his Baltimore debut. He had a 12.2 swinging strike rate.
Pablo Lopez SP, Twins
Allowed six homers in 14 spring innings, but struck out seven and walked none while allowing one run over seven innings in Thursday’s opener.
Big whiffs
Kyle Freeland SP, Rockies
Followed a solid spring with an Opening Day clunker, allowing 10 runs on 10 hits over 2 ¹/₃ innings. And the game wasn’t even in Colorado!
Luis Arraez 2B, Marlins
Led the majors with a .354 average last season (and won the AL batting crown in 2022 when he hit .316), but went 0-for-6 on Thursday.
Kyle Schwarber OF, Phillies
Hopefully his exhibition season wasn’t a sign of things to come as he struck out in 45.5 percent of his at-bats, hit .132 and didn’t homer in 44 plate appearances.
Framber Valdez SP, Astros
In 95 appearances from 2020-23, he walked 2.9 per nine innings. He issued six free passes (11.6 per nine) vs. the Yanks, tying a career high.
Check swings
– Paul Goldschmidt had a terrible spring, hitting .128 with a .477 OPS and 20 strikeouts. He looked awful. In St. Louis’ opener, he went 3-for-4 with a homer. Let’s say it again, class: Spring training numbers don’t count!
– Tyler O’Neill has proven he should be a fixture in your fantasy lineup — at least on Opening Day. According to Elias Sports Bureau, the Red Sox outfielder became the first player to hit a homer in five straight openers. Yogi Berra, Gary Carter and Todd Hundley had four straight.
– Just about any pitcher will look great against Oakland, but Shane Bieber allowed just four hits over six shutout innings and struck out 11 in the opener. It was his fifth straight Opening Day start and he has a 0.94 ERA in those outings.
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