It may be an AFC team, but that doesn’t make the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ game against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday any less important.

The Bucs remain in the thick of the NFC South race (somehow), back just one game from the first place New Orleans Saints and tied with the Atlanta Falcons at 4-6. The Indianapolis Colts, too, still have meaningful football to play for, just two games back from the AFC South lead themselves. If Tampa Bay can take this victory, it’ll come within striking distance of the division title once again.

Here is how our staff sees Sunday’s matchup going for the Bucs:

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A big key here for the defense will be to ensure that Johnathan Taylor and the rest of the Colts’ running game stays put, which it has done well in the past. The Bucs have a putrid pass defense and it could get worse with cornerback Jamel Dean out, but making quarterback Gardner Minshew have to win the game on his own could be the key to victory for Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, has shown the ability to beat poor passing defenses through the air (and Indianapolis is certainly one of them), so the team could score some points on Sunday. Despite that, I think this one is a close affair that narrowly results in a Tampa Bay victory.

Bucs 23, Colts 21

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After a humbling loss to the 49ers last week, the Bucs enter the “easy” slate of their schedule, starting with a road game in Indianapolis. There isn’t anything terribly special about this Colts team, but head coach Shane Steichen has the offense within spitting distance of the top 10 in the NFL. The defense is another story, allowing the ninth most points scored this year. Despite allowing the third-most passing yards, the Bucs defense is much more bend than break, allowing the ninth fewest points scored. Though they will be missing a few key players like Lavonte David, Tampa Bay’s improving offense and resilient defense should see them prevail over Indianapolis.

Bucs 24, Colts 17

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Lucas Oil Stadium and face off with the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. The Colts are the third of four AFC South opponents the Bucs are sent to play this season. Tampa Bay is 1-1 against the division so far, and I expect it can improve its record and pick up its third road win of the season. Similar to the Bucs, the Colts feature one of the weaker defenses in the NFL and rank No. 18 in pass defense. With two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to air it out and a pair of skilled wide receivers on both sides (Evans/Godwin, Pittman/Downs), I expect it’ll be a shootout. The Bucs will find a way to win despite the potential absence of Rachaad White.

Bucs 31, Colts 28