At the season’s halfway point, the Buccaneers are where many expected them to be: on track for a high pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. After a hot 3-1 start, the Bucs have lost four straight games since their bye week. At the heart of their struggles is an offense still searching for an identity and any semblance of consistency.
Tampa Bay surprised with their early success, particularly behind the unexpectedly strong play of Baker Mayfield. However, from the very beginning, there were signs that the Bucs were in for a rough ride this season. Their run game is the worst in the NFL, ranking dead last in yards per attempt and rushing first downs.
Offensive coordinator Dave Canales’ inexperience has been evident throughout the season as he struggled with play sequencing and compensating for the disastrous run game. Still, Canales is a definitive upgrade from Byron Leftwich, displaying more creativity and modernity in his play designs and overall structure.
Overall, the Bucs offense is at best average this season. While they have many talented players, the Tom Brady hangover has clearly hit certain aspects of the roster and the coaching staff has not figured out how maximize the unit’s efficiency.
Hear are the midseason grades for Tampa Bay’s offense:
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When the Bucs signed Baker Mayfield, expectations were low for the former first-overall pick as he joined his fourth team in six years. To the surprise of many (though perhaps not the Bucs), Mayfield has been a perfectly average starting quarterback, ranking ninth in EPA per play, 16th in completion percentage above expectation and 19th in success rate among all quarterbacks.
Mayfield has largely avoided the catastrophic plays that plagued his time in Cleveland and has been surprisingly efficient in running the ball. However, he appears to be tapping on his ceiling as he is routinely late on throws to open receivers and struggles with deep passes that would otherwise open up the offense. He is succeeding as a caretaker quarterback, but Tampa’s prospects are limited while he is under center.
Grade: B-
Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
The Bucs have the worst running back room in the NFL. Yes, the offensive line has been dreadful at run blocking and the transition from a gap scheme to zone under Dave Canales has been anything but smooth. Nonetheless, Tampa’s tailbacks have done little to nothing to improve the situation.
Despite averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, Rachaad White is the only truly viable ball carrier the Bucs appear to have. When he has the ball in space, White is actually a potent weapon, as he averages 8.2 yards per target, but as the Bucs’ featured back, he is ill-equipped to generate yards behind poor blocking.
The rest of the group can be counted among the least productive running backs in the NFL, according to Fox Sports’ Greg Auman:
There are six NFL RBs with 10+ carries averaging 2.0 yards per carry or less — 3 are the Bucs backups. If you do yards per touch (accounting for screens) there are three at less than 2.0 per game: Tucker (1.88), Vaughn (1.69) and Deon Jackson (1.58), who’s been cut twice.
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) November 8, 2023
Canales has yet to find an answer for fixing the run game or otherwise compensating for its futility. Relying solely on the talent in the room just is not cutting it.
Grade: D-
(Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
The main thing keeping the Bucs offense moving is the talent at the wide receiver position. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain a potent duo, with Evans showing little signs of age and Godwin fully back from his torn ACL. This season they account for 44.5% of Tampa’s total yards and 62.1% of their first downs. Their biggest limitations are their quarterback and the play calling, the latter of which does not appear to fully grasp just how much these two drive the entire offense.
The rest of the receiving group is young and talented but not on either Evans or Godwin’s level. 2023 sixth-rounder Trey Palmer is the most promising of the bunch but has yet to properly break out, catching just 15 passes for 167 yards and two touchdowns.
Barring injury, Tampa’s offense will continue to go as Evans and Godwin go, provided the ball actually comes their way.
Grade: A-
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Tampa Bay’s tight end group is another disappointing unit hindering the operation of the offense. They add little as receivers and have been liabilities as run blockers. Cade Otton is the group’s leading receiver basically by default. No other tight end has garnered more than three targets or actually caught more than two passes.
The Bucs’ reliance on the tight ends in run support is a major reason why their run game has failed to get going. Pro Football Focus has all of Tampa Bay’s tight ends graded below 60, which is average at best. Otton, in particular, has struggled to hold up as a run blocker.
The Bucs have not invested much in the position, nothing more than a fourth-round pick, and it shows. While the offense does not place much emphasis on tight end production, the Bucs will no doubt look to upgrade in the offseason.
Grade: D
(Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)
Tampa Bay’s offensive line is a two-faced beast this season. There are few offensive lines better in pass protection and there is likely no unit worse in run blocking. While pass blocking is sound across the line, the interior line is driving the Bucs’ struggles to open running lanes and get downfield.
2023 second-round pick Cody Mauch is facing a baptism by fire, not only playing much stronger competition than he did at North Dakota State, but also moving to right guard from left tackle. Center Robert Hainsey is a clear downgrade from Ryan Jensen and Matt Feiler is proving why he was available so late in free agency this year.
The most positive development is the surprisingly excellent play of right tackle Luke Goedeke. After struggling mightily his rookie year, he slid into the right tackle position vacated by Tristan Wirfs and made it his own. Wirfs himself made the improbably seamless transition to left tackle, giving Tampa Bay one of the better tackle duos in the NFL.
Grade: B-
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Hiring Dave Canales was a real gamble for Todd Bowles. The first-time play caller was a late hire in the postseason coaching carousel, and he was taking over an offense that was replacing a Hall of Fame quarterback with a reclamation project. To his credit, Canales has not crashed and burned yet, but it remains to be seen whether he can come in for a smooth landing.
Canales made his own gamble by installing a wide zone system to replace the Bucs’ predominantly gap-heavy blocking scheme. While zone blocking is the favored scheme of most NFL offenses, Canales failed to have it operational for the season, and it has become a 10-ton anchor on the rest of the offense.
The saving grace of the offense is the much-improved pass play design, which, unlike Byron Leftwich’s system, schemes players open and gives the quarterback actual safety valves. It would also be hard not to give Canales some credit for Baker Mayfield’s newfound aversion to turning the ball over and overall improvement in passing efficiency.
Grade: C
